That big red wave? It did not reach the shores of WA state

So much for that rumored big red conservative wave.

Too bad for conspiracy theorists, election deniers (most of them, anyway) and the MAGA right.

All of those things didn’t go well, at all, in Tuesday’s vote count in the Washington primary. Overall, voters in this state seemed to reject the conventional wisdom that this would be the first good year for Republicans here since 2014.

“Republican narratives have been dismantled” tweeted Andrew Villeneuve of the Northwest Progressive Institute, who had been insisting for months that local polls did not support the idea, fueled by the media, that there would be a backlash in favor of conservatives in that state.

There could still be, of course, as there are three months to go before the general election in November. Lots of things can happen, including that the totals for this primary can and will change in the coming days as more votes are counted.

But Tuesday’s early primary results showed no sign of a changing tide in our bruise-laden local politics.

On the contrary, voters were signaling that they just wanted a break from all the madness.

Voters seemed in no mood to experiment with either party’s margins. The MAGA candidates fought on the right, while the Democratic Socialists made no dent on the left.

Former President Donald Trump’s two favorite candidates in the state were trailing, for example, and may not make it out of the first two primaries. Former GOP gubernatorial candidate Loren Culp in central Washington was third in the 4th congressional district, as was Fox News regular and newcomer Joe Kent in the southern 3rd district. -western Washington.

In both cases, Trump had sought revenge against the incumbent GOP members of Congress who voted to impeach him for his role in the 2021 Capitol riot. Those incumbents, Rep. Dan Newhouse, R-Sunnyside, and the representing Jaime Herrera Beutler, R- Camas, were just about to be re-elected. (Both were only about 25%.) But both are in a position to pass the primaries challenge and run in a general election against a Democratic opponent.

Both Culp and Kent were outright election deniers, insisting Trump won in 2020. (Culp still incredibly insists he won his gubernatorial race against current Gov. Jay Inslee.) The craziness element of it may have been too much for voters.

In were rational candidates. Out: Candidates concocting their own realities.

The losers were a host of election conspiracy theorists, such as Tamborine Borrelli, who filed a series of bogus lawsuits during the 2020 election; Rep. Brad Klippert, R-Kennewick, who attended a ‘stolen election’ conference hosted by the guy from My Pillow, then billed taxpayers for the trip; Vicki Kraft, R-Vancouver, who also attended this conference; and Amber Krabach, a Republican candidate for State House on the Eastside who recently made headlines for trying to police the ballot box.

Despite all the talk that incumbent congressional Democrats such as Rep. Kim Schrier, D-Issaquah and U.S. Sen. Patty Murray might be in trouble, the two easily edge out their rivals. Schrier in particular is doing better than she did in her last primary, in 2020. That doesn’t mean she’s stuck in November. But this means that no red wave has descended on her.

“I think six weeks ago the headwinds against Democrats were stronger than they are today,” Rep. Rick Larsen, D-Everett, told The Times.

What happened six weeks ago? The Supreme Court of the United States has adopted a conservative attitude, rejecting the right to abortion, allowing prayer in schools, etc.

There’s a rule of thumb among election analysts that if you add up the vote shares for the parties in each of our open primary contests, it’s a decent guide to which side will win that race in November. It’s not perfect, but as a general guide, it captures the general mood.

The use of this technique on Tuesday’s preliminary results shows that despite high inflation, concerns about crime and President Joe Biden’s low approval ratings, Democrats are doing about as well as others. usual, especially in hard-fought suburbs.

Case in point: Republicans spent a lot of money targeting a series of state legislative districts in suburban King County and Snohomish, where the GOP had been wiped out during the Trump years. Still, Democrats were well ahead Tuesday in all of them.

In the 44th in Snohomish County, Democrats got 54% to 59% of the total vote. In 47th at King, they were getting 52% to 56%, and in 45th at Eastside, the Democrats were pulling a whopping 66% to 72%.

Biden, like Trump before him, was meant to be a drag on his own party. It is not normal for a party to get so far ahead of its own president’s low approval ratings.

If, in this environment, Republicans can’t get a red wave, swell, or even a ripple, it’s hard to see how they’ll ever fight to get back into this state.

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